Re: [情報] 美元會再漲5% ！？降息不可能？

作者: bluejade1235 (藍玉)
時間: Thu Sep 14 10:24:47 2023

https://www.pttweb.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694237467.A.9B8
這篇文章很可惜的被刪掉了
其實ptt上有很多篇文章都在談論利率，如
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694616152.A.269.html
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694611617.A.C3E.html
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694391683.A.776.html
等等，多不勝數
不過我也不怪板主，畢竟板主是無給職，每天要花那麼多時間維持板面也是很辛苦的
。
進入正文
臺灣人普遍都對利率太樂觀了
美國房貸利率7%
全世界平均房貸利率6%
臺灣房貸利率2%
日本房貸利率1.5%
全世界臺灣應該是第二名，只輸日本而已
。
美國縱然降息，他還有7%
利率這個東西，他是看絕對數字，而不是相對數字
舉例來說
醫師的薪水一直下降
服務員的薪水一直上升
有人會因為這樣不去當醫師而跑去當服務員嗎?
醫師薪水長期走降，但還是很高
服務員薪水長期走升，但還是很低
。
全世界利率平均是6%
就算下降2%，那也還有4%，是臺灣整整2倍之多
。
https://www.thenewslens.com/article/168320
美國是2022/3開始升息，一共升了5.5%，2022/3之前美國的利率是很低的
全世界也跟美國一樣，2022/3開始大幅升息，少數幾個國家例外而已
臺灣只升了0.5%，只有美國的1/10
像臺灣這樣的情況非常的少見，而且也不會長久
。
全世界的經濟是連在一起的，現在有人硬要說全世界都很差，只有我還好???
全世界的通膨是連在一起的，現在有人硬要說全世界都高通膨，只有我還好???
這個是一定不會長久的
。
我說臺灣房價會腰斬，這個是好意提醒你們，但你們聽不進去，硬要認為我在唱衰，然後
亂檢舉，我也不知道該說些什麼
大多數的人都對臺灣房價、臺灣利率太樂觀了
臺灣獨立於全世界的情況是不會長久的


















※ 引述《gothmog (上海極司非爾路76號)》之銘言：
: 不負責翻譯在最後
: Dollar to Rise Another 5% on Sticky Inflation, Acadian Says
: The dollar is poised to jump with Treasury yields in the coming months as still-
: elevated inflation will likely push the Federal Reserve toward further policy ti
: ghtening, says Clifton Hill at Acadian Asset Management.
: Bloomberg News
: Anya Andrianova
: Published Sep 12, 2023 ‧
: (Bloomberg) — The dollar is poised to jump with Treasury yields in the coming m
: onths as still-elevated inflation will likely push the Federal Reserve toward fu
: rther policy tightening, says Clifton Hill at Acadian Asset Management.
: Hill, a global macro portfolio manager, sees the US currency gaining an addition
: al 5% versus many peers, with the trigger coming as policy makers signal further
: interest-rate hikes in the leadup to their Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting. He’s preppi
: ng for that outcome by favoring the greenback against the Australian, New Zealan
: d and Canadian dollars, as well as the yen.
: His views on the Fed and the dollar proved prescient earlier this year. In Febru
: ary, he correctly predicted that the yen would fall back toward the 32-year lows
: it hit in 2022 as the Fed tightened further than many market participants antic
: ipated.
: The US currency stabilized on Tuesday, after falling from a six-month high Monda
: y as authorities in Japan and China ramped up support for their currencies. But
: as Hill sees it, the decline to start the week will amount to a bump in the road
: as markets reprice the Fed’s path. It’s a chain of events he also expects wil
: l push 10-year Treasury yields close to 5%, a level last seen in 2007, from roug
: hly 4.3% now.
: “The Fed may have to leave the possibility open of hiking further,” potentiall
: y two or three more times, said the money manager, whose firm oversees about $10
: 0 billion. “Inflation actually going up away from global central banks’ target
: s in the fourth quarter would be a game changer for markets.”
: Read more: Fed Hikes Risk Dragging Yen Back to 145 Per Dollar, Acadian Says
: Traders expect the Fed to stay on hold at a policy meeting next week, and see ro
: ughly a 50% chance that it delivers another hike at the following decision Nov.
: 1, before pivoting to cuts next year. The Fed pushed its benchmark rate to the h
: ighest in more than two decades in July to tame inflation.
: STORY CONTINUES BELOW
: The dollar gained the past eight weeks, buoyed by the US economy’s resilience r
: elative to other major peers, in particular Europe and China.
: US consumer-price index data scheduled for release Wednesday is expected to show
: inflation pressure reaccelerating, which risks jolting the Treasury market. The
: CPI is expected to have risen 3.6% in August from a year earlier, from 3.2% in
: July, even as the core measure — which removes food and energy costs — fell to
: 4.3%, the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey shows.
: Read more: Bond Traders Brace for Risk Inflation Will Fuel Rate-Hike Bets
: “Every time that inflation comes down some, markets and economists extrapolate
: out that it will continue all the way down to 2% in short order,” Hill said. “
: But we are still well over 4% in US core inflation, and there is a good chance t
: hat it stays there, or increases back up this autumn into early next year.”
: Hill also anticipates dollar strength versus most emerging markets, with the yua
: n, South Korean won and Brazilian real likely to lose the most.
: He acknowledges that his outlook poses a risk to assets like stocks, which are v
: ulnerable to any uptick in expectations for additional Fed tightening.
: But if inflation is proving tough to tackle, policy makers’ “hands are complet
: ely tied,” he said. “If inflation is going up, you can’t then all of a sudden
: cut rates.”
: In the “best case,” he said, in which inflation doesn’t accelerate as much as
: he expects, the Fed refrains from hiking further, and instead stays on hold for
: most of 2024.
: (Updates market movement.)
: 不負責翻譯如下
: Acadian Asset Management（知名資產管理公司）管理著約1000億美元的基金經理Clifton
: Hill表示，
: 未來幾個月，美元將隨著美國國債收益率的上漲而上漲，美元兌換其它貨幣將再上升5%（Fe
: d 非常有可能在10/31-11/1 的會議上宣布加息）
: 因為通膨打不下來，可能會推動美聯儲進一步收緊政策，至少再加息2-3次
: 他說：美國核心通膨還在4%以上 就不能說反通膨成功，反通膨沒有成功 就不能提降息
: 結論： 救救美債？


: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 114.44.10.2 (臺灣)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694658290.A.4D7.html
推 a82412 : 房價腰斬，記下來了，謝謝提醒 09/14 10:26
推 xupmc : 政府認證印鈔工具 不會跌啦 09/14 10:26
推 boykid : 每天喊總有一天會喊對，你要訂個期限吧 09/14 10:27
→ apple960164 : 急了 09/14 10:27
推 kony25 : 說腰斬太激烈，但下修是有機會的 09/14 10:27
推 iamaq18c : 腰斬一定有可能 問題是啥時才會斬~ 喊個30年也可以 09/14 10:27
→ laserx : 我不認為會升息~到頂了~近一個月可以買債了~ 09/14 10:28
→ EvilJustice : 這id不用看，浪費時間 09/14 10:28
推 NccuShuai : 你可以把這篇發到房版 09/14 10:29
→ laserx : 升息的效果已經鈍化~ Fed 只是不願意鬆口承認 09/14 10:29
噓 ericsonzhen : 問題是你以往的發文讓人不敢苟同 09/14 10:29
推 PitzMan : 藍玉王LoL 09/14 10:29
推 maxsevenstar: 壓個日期不然你這不會長久是怎麼計算的？ 09/14 10:29
推 stocktonty : 30年大循環來說 大概也要2024-2025年才會見頂 09/14 10:29
噓 robot456 : 你有回測過你的準確率嗎？ 09/14 10:30
推 ming2710 : 推 可以當央行總裁了 09/14 10:30
→ maxsevenstar: 以國家發展來說三五年叫短期，以人壽命算長期 09/14 10:30
推 ab4daa : 房價只會漲不會跌 不要不信 09/14 10:31
推 disk249 : 照你這樣講 高利率變成常態化？ 我是不信 09/14 10:32
→ disk249 : 一旦通膨降低了 政府還有什麼理由維持高利率？ 09/14 10:33
推 daniel955377: 你有沒有聽過致富的特權 09/14 10:33
→ daniel955377: 你知不知道今年楊金龍續任 09/14 10:33
噓 happytravell: 沒腰斬你到總統府門口洗門風？ 09/14 10:34
推 Gipmydanger : ok 09/14 10:35
→ k85564 : 你知道美國大部分是固定利率嗎 09/14 10:36
推 azxswqa : 先幫你補血等下房蟲要進攻了 09/14 10:38
推 deolinwind : 主子有教：裝睡的人叫不醒 09/14 10:39
推 komorin : 不要做夢房價會跌了，政府弄新青貸就是要穩住房市， 09/14 10:40
→ komorin : 搞不好還更貴 09/14 10:40
推 wekaytw : 防蟲大舉進攻 噴得你不要不要 喝～ 09/14 10:40
噓 icelaw : 閱 09/14 10:40
→ wind2k : 房東有錢就買更多戶租, 房客等有錢就買房; 怎麼跌 09/14 10:42
噓 alex5566 : 腰斬不太可能 要說回檔修正還有可能.... =.= 09/14 10:44
推 alinyaya : 10年前那個做夢會跌的到現在還在租房子 09/14 10:44
推 MbvLectA : 台灣只要還是藍綠 房價只會一年比一年高 09/14 10:44
推 memories66 : 好 謝謝提醒 09/14 10:44
推 strlen : 世界=美國=FED 哪有什麼世界 就只有FED 09/14 10:45
→ foreigner00 : 你怎麼導出房價腰斬的結論？看看美國房價好嗎 09/14 10:45
推 doubleyellow: 不可能！絕對不可能 09/14 10:46
推 g0t24568 : 做夢喔 房貸違約率沒變高 銀行也不會抽銀根啦 09/14 10:47
推 cckhyofg : 房價腰斬可以看看對岸現在什麼狗樣 09/14 10:47
推 smart80615 : 房價腰斬? 認真?XDDDDD 09/14 10:47
推 esproject : 高通膨只會推升房價 要房價跌先通縮 09/14 10:48
→ esproject : 請問台灣有通縮現象嗎？ 09/14 10:49
噓 a316xxx : 我也可以說股市總有天會腰斬，但什麼時候我不知道 09/14 10:49
→ esproject : 減薪裁員一堆人失業 房價才會跌 09/14 10:49
噓 energyy1104 : 好了啦先知 09/14 10:50
噓 ZakuSIN : 閱 09/14 10:51
推 hellomotogg : 醬子建商怎麼辦 09/14 10:51
推 Gipmydanger : 說穿了還不是希望我買之前一直跌，我買之後一直漲 09/14 10:52
→ Gipmydanger : 。問題你的主觀願望不影響客觀事實 09/14 10:52
推 onepiecefan : 腰斬…我只能說你不懂執政黨 09/14 10:53
噓 MakeTheMoon : 可憐 09/14 10:53
噓 leota : 哈哈 09/14 10:55
→ chunfo : 中國人一定願意溢價買 大不了全面開放 09/14 10:56
推 andyher : 看了一下作者是藍玉，那沒事了 09/14 10:56
推 fujioqq : 前面講的很合理阿 但是房價腰斬應該是幾乎不可能XD 09/14 10:56
推 imba789 : 泡泡總會破裂，但執政黨會想辦法傳炸彈 09/14 10:57
推 c22748872 : 以這個理論模型，從身高體重罩杯到老二長度最後全 09/14 10:58
→ c22748872 : 世界都會一樣啦，世界大同 09/14 10:58
→ mcucte : 政府還有五千億外匯可以賣，嘻嘻 09/14 10:58
推 lpmybig : 快空房子R 09/14 10:59
→ buffon : ptt 這種自以為是的預言家真的太多了 09/14 10:59
推 cloud7515 : 還不快把房子賣掉 做空啊 09/14 10:59
→ buffon : 每個被打臉就躲起來 幾個月後又一副高深莫測預言 09/14 11:00
推 KMOOO : 什麼時候要腰斬啊？50年後嗎？隨便喊喊我也會 09/14 11:00
噓 brianberry : 語畢，哄然大笑 09/14 11:00
噓 EddieJeremy : 看ID就可以噓 09/14 11:00
推 diablojonn : 感謝大大提醒 09/14 11:01
推 Juniorlin02 : 有部分其實蠻中肯的，但房蟲會來噓 09/14 11:01
推 hihi29 : 中肯 台灣房價遲早會崩! 09/14 11:02
推 j09201992 : 感謝大大提醒 09/14 11:03
噓 wuyihsien : 屎味的繼承人？ 09/14 11:08
推 alonzohorse : 很中肯，我建議有房的快點賣掉，不然腰斬再腰斬 09/14 11:11
噓 s58565254 : 明年要降息了 台灣在這時候還升息?? 09/14 11:12
→ ga6rx : 聽君一席話 09/14 11:13
噓 play6801 : 腰斬銀行全部倒一倒，拜託快點 09/14 11:14
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694658290.A.4D7.html